A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
