Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
